Ireland: Current trends in cigarette smoking

Introduction:
The Office monitors cigarette smoking prevalence and behaviour on a monthly basis to gain a detailed picture of smoking patterns in Ireland and to identify trends in this pattern. This information is useful to inform policy decisions.

The data set is compiled from a monthly, quota survey conducted by telephone omnibus by TNS mrbi. The data consists of a collection of 1,000 responses per month from July 2002 from the Irish population over 15 years of age and are weighted by the following demographic characteristics: gender, age, social class and region.

Cigarette smoking prevalence is analysed under a number of demographic classifications to further our understanding of smoking behaviour. Cigarette consumption and brand choice data are also presented.

Where a moving average is applied, this facilitates the smoothing out of short-term data fluctuations to provide a better picture of the underlying trend and offers a more reliable basis for predicting long-term trends.

Topics:
· 12-Month Prevalence Charts
· Trend Data
· Smoking Population Data
· Market Data
· Glossary

>12-MONTH PREVALENCE CHARTS

The overall prevalence of cigarette smoking in Ireland is 23.6% at March 2008 (Chart_1). The represents a statistically significant decline of 1.2% from March 2007 (Z=-2.18; p-value=0.03).

Chart_1.1 shows the breakdown of smokers and non smokers by gender at March 2008.  A higher percentage of men (24.4%) report as smokers compared to women (22.8%).  These results show that a statistically significant decline has occurred in smoking rates among women during the last 12 months (Z=-2.37; p-value=0.02), whereas there has not been a significant change for men.

Chart_1.2 shows cigarette smoking by age group. The largest change occurred among 15-24 year olds with a statistically significant decline from 29.5% to 23.45% during the 12 month period to March 2008 (Z=-4.81; p-value=0.00).  The age groups 25-34 year olds and 35-44 year olds also show a decrease with the remaining age groups showing an increase in smoking prevalence. These results however do not turn out to be statistically significant.
Smoking prevalence peaks among the 25-34 year old age cohort, with almost 31% reporting as smokers. Prevalence is lowest among the 65+ age group with one in eight smokers in this group.

Chart_1.3 looks at social class and shows that the highest cigarette smoking prevalence rate is in C2 category at 28.8% although this group is the only social class that has experienced a statistically significant decline in smoking rates since March 2007 (Z=-2.38; p-value=0.04). The lowest smoking rate is among farmers. The AB and C1 classes have lower than average smoking rates.

Chart_1.4 shows cigarette smoking rates by region. Smoking levels are highest in Dublin. The Leinster region (excluding Dublin) has the lowest prevalence rate and has seen a statistically significant decline of 2.84% in the last 12 month period (Z=-2.84; p-value=0.01). 

Finally, prevalence data by Health Service Executive (HSE) area are presented in Chart_1.5. HSE West has the lowest smoking rate (22.5%). Rates vary only slightly among the four regions. None of these regions show a statistically significant decline since March 2007.

>TREND DATA

The 12-month moving average trend provides a smoothed pattern to the data and provides a picture of smoking behaviour since June 2003.

The data presented in Figure 2 show that overall smoking prevalence rates have declined during the past twelve months following a period where rates had been largely constant.

The trend data are again analysed under various demographic headings including gender, age, social class and region.

The cigarette smoking trends by gender are presented in Figure_2.1. Female smoking prevalence rates show a downward trend during the last year.
While male smoking prevalence rates fluctuated somewhat during that same period, the data suggest some downward movement in male smoking rates in the last few months. 

The trend data for the various age groups are presented in Figure_2.2. The three younger age categories (15-24 years, 25-34 years and 35-44 years) show downward trends in smoking prevalence in the last 12 months.  Conversely, the three older age cohorts (45-54 years, 55- 64 years and 65+ years) show slight upward movement.

Cigarette smoking trends by social class are shown in Figure_2.3. During the past twelve months there has been a downward trend in the AB, C2 and DE categories.

Figure_2.4 outlines cigarette smoking trends by region. Prevalence rates in Dublin and the Rest of Leinster have fallen during the last year.

Cigarette smoking trends by Health Service Executive (HSE) area are presented in Figure_2.5. During the past year, smoking rates among the Dublin Mid-Leinster, West and South regions have fallen while prevalence in Dublin North-East has fluctuated somewhat during the same period.

The Office also monitors the reported number of cigarettes smoked each day by smokers. There are four categories tracked in Figure_2.6:
• Occasional – between 1 and 5 cigarettes per day;
• Light – between 6 and 10 cigarettes per day;
• Regular- between 11 and 20 cigarettes per day;
• Heavy – 21 or more cigarettes per day.

There has been little movement across the categories during the past 12 months.

>SMOKING POPULATION DATA

These following charts focus on smokers only and their demographic profiles as at March 2008. The following results discuss the sample data only and are not necessarily present in the population.

Chart_3.1 shows the breakdown of smokers by gender at March 2008, with almost an even split between male / female smokers.

The distribution of smokers across age groups is presented in Chart_3.2. Close to 50% of smokers fall within the combined 25-34 years (26.6%) and 35-44 years (21.2%). Fewer than 17% of Ireland’s smokers are aged 55+ years.

Chart_3.3 shows the distribution of total smokers among social class. The C2 category alone accounts for almost one third (32.5%) of the smoking population.

The smoking population is analysed by region in Chart_3.4 and by Health Service Executive (HSE) area in Chart_3.5. 

Chart_3.6 depicts the number of cigarettes smoked daily by all reported smokers. The majority of smokers (44.9%) indicated that they were regular smokers, smoking 11-20 cigarettes daily. A further 47% of smokers reported being either occasional or light smokers. Heavy smokers account for the balance. 

>MARKET DATA

The following charts include data relating to the Irish cigarette market.

Distributor Market Share
The Irish market is dominated by three main distributors. Market shareholding is dominated by the Gallaher Group (Chart_4)

Most popular brands of cigarette smoked
Of the top five most popular brands, the Gallaher Group distributes three of them, namely Benson & Hedges, Silk Cut Purple, and Silk Cut Blue (Chart_4.1). These have featured in the top five most popular brands since August 2003.

Most popular brands by Gender and Age
Chart_4.2 and Chart_4.3 highlight the noticeable differences in consumer patterns according to gender and age.

 
>GLOSSARY

Cigarette Smoking Prevalence: Refers to the reported use of cigarettes in the population.

Weighted Data: Quota controls on the sample are set to ensure each demographic group is interviewed in proportion to its representation in the overall population.  When quotas are underachieved or overachieved, weightings are applied to fully align the sample's final demographic profile with that of the overall population.

12 month moving average trend: The 12 month moving average trend statistic is designed to take the current months data value, and the previous 11 months figures and get the average. This is generally used to remove noise (high amounts of variation between monthly values) from the data so that a smoothed pattern can be applied and the actual trend occurring can be more readily interpretable.

Smooth (Smoothed) pattern: The idea by which the use of a moving average removes the variation in the data to provide a more flattened pattern, thus giving an easier way to view the distributional trend of interest.

Social Class Categorisation
A Professional people, very senior managers in business and commerce or top-level civil servants

B Middle Management Executives in large organisations
Principal officers in local government and civil service
Top Management or owners of small business concerns, education and service establishments

C1 Junior management, owners of small establishments and all others in non- manual positions

C2 All skilled manual workers and those manual workers with responsibility for other people

D All semi skilled and unskilled manual workers

E All those entirely dependent on the state long term, those unemployed for period exceeding 6 months

F Farmers or farm managers

(Source: AIMRO Standard Guide for Social Class)