Ireland: Current trends in cigarette smoking

Introduction

The Office monitors cigarette smoking prevalence and behaviour on a monthly basis to gain a detailed picture of smoking patterns in Ireland and to identify trends in this pattern. This information is useful for informing policy decisions.

The data are compiled from a monthly quota survey conducted on Ipsos MRBI’s telephone omnipoll. The data consist of a collection of 1,000 respondents per month from July 2002 to date. The research is conducted among Irish adults aged 15 years and over. The data are weighted by gender, age, social class and region.

Cigarette smoking prevalence is analysed under a number of demographic classifications to further our understanding of smoking behaviour. Cigarette consumption and brand choice data are also presented.

Smoking prevalence rates and smoker demographic characteristics are presented as 12 month averages in order to provide more stable estimates. Trends over time are presented as 12 month moving averages in order to give a better picture of the underlying trend. Minor discrepancies between prevalence figures and trend figures reflect these different methods of calculation.

Methodological Changes to Survey

Prior to May 2008, the Ipsos MRBI telephone omnipoll was conducted with respondents via landline telephone numbers only. From May 2008 the data collection methodology was updated to reflect changing demographics and telephone usage patterns in Ireland. The sample population is now drawn from a combination of both landline and mobile phone numbers. While the questionnaire and quota controls are unchanged, some population subgroups that may previously have been difficult to contact are now better represented in the sample.

This change in sampling method resulted in an increase in prevalence (of about 3%) from May 2008 on. The pre-May 2008 data have therefore been re-calibrated* to allow for trend analysis, with the caveat that calibration may not restore strict comparability. The prevalence rates presented prior to May 2008 therefore differ from those previously published with respect to magnitude (but not trend pattern).

*Technical note

To re-calibrate the trend data, the data were seasonally adjusted and then the six months of data prior to the change were compared with six months of data after the change in order to isolate the impact of the change in methodology. The smoking prevalence figures prior to May 2008 were subsequently adjusted accordingly, on the assumption that the change in sampling approach was the only difference in smoking prevalence between the two 6 month periods.

Topics:

• 12-Month Prevalence Charts
• Trend Data
• Description Of Smokers
• Market Data
• Glossary

12-MONTH PREVALENCE CHARTS

Smoking was defined as responding yes to the question “Do you smoke one or more cigarettes each week, whether packaged or roll your own?” The overall prevalence of cigarette smoking in Ireland at June 2010 was 23.6% (Chart 1). There has been a decline in prevalence of 3.8% since June 2008.

Chart 1.1 shows the prevalence of smoking by gender at June 2010. A higher percentage of men (25.0%) reported being smokers than did women (22.2%). Smoking rates for both men and women have declined since June 2008.

Chart 1.2 shows cigarette smoking by age group. Smoking rates were highest among younger adults (18-44 years), reaching 30% in the 25-34 year old age group. Prevalence was lowest among the 65+ age group at 13.5%. One in seven 15-17 year olds (14.3%) reported smoking. Rates have remained fairly steady since June 2008 in the 15-17 year age group and in the two oldest age groups but declined in adults aged 18-54 years.

Chart 1.3 looks at social class and shows that the highest cigarette smoking prevalence rates were in the lower income groups (DE and C2 category). However, these categories have shown a decrease, of 2.4% and 6.9% respectively, since June 2008. The lowest smoking rates (15%) were among farmers (F) and higher socio-economic groups (AB). The rates for all categories except for farmers have declined since June 2008.

Chart 1.4 shows cigarette smoking rates by region. There was very little difference in smoking rates in the different regions. However, caution is required in interpreting these figures as the rates were not adjusted to account for the differing age and social class structures in each region. Smoking rates were lowest in Connaught/Ulster (22.1%) and highest in Munster (24.2%). The older average age of the population in the west of Ireland may partly account for the lower smoking prevalence observed in the Connaught/Ulster region. Prevalence rates decreased in all regions except Connaught/Ulster since June 2008. The rate in the Dublin region has dropped by 5.8% since June 2008, when it had been the region with the highest smoking prevalence rates.

Finally, prevalence rates by Health Service Executive (HSE) administrative area are presented in Chart 1.5. There is very little difference in smoking rates in the different areas. HSE West has the lowest rates at 22.2% at June 2010, while HSE South has the highest at 24.5%.

TREND DATA

The 12-month moving average trends provide a smoothed pattern to the data and give a picture of smoking behaviour between June 2003 and June 2010. Smokers were those who answered yes to the question “Do you smoke one or more cigarettes each week, whether packaged or roll your own?”

The data presented in Figure 2.1 show that overall smoking prevalence has declined to 23.6%. Rates in both men and women have declined steadily over the last two years to 25.0% and 22.2% respectively.

The trends for the various age groups are shown in Figure 2.2. Smoking rates among people aged between 18 and 54 have declined since June 2008. The 18-24 year olds and the 25-34 year olds have shown the greatest decline, dropping by 7.3% and 8.4% respectively. However, the rates in the two oldest age groups, 55-64 and the 65+ year olds, and the youngest age group, 15-17 year olds, did not decline.

Cigarette smoking trends by social class are shown in Figure 2.3. Over the last two years, all categories except for farmers (Social Class F), have shown a decline in prevalence rates. Smoking prevalence rates declined most steeply in social class C2, dropping by 6.9% since June 2008.

Cigarette smoking by region is outlined in Figure 2.4. All regions showed a sustained decline over the past two years, with the biggest decline in Dublin where rates dropped from 29.6% at June 2008 to 23.8% at June 2010. Cigarette smoking prevalence rates are presented by Health Service Executive (HSE) administrative area in Figure 2.5. Over the past two years, prevalence rates in all areas have dropped steadily, with the greatest decline (6.5%) seen in HSE Dublin North-East. Smoking prevalence rates in HSE South increased between June 2008 and June 2009, but have decreased steadily over the past 12 months.

The Office also monitors the reported number of cigarettes smoked daily by smokers. There are four categories tracked in Figure 2.6:

• Occasional – between 1 and 5 cigarettes per day;
• Light – between 6 and 10 cigarettes per day;
• Regular- between 11 and 20 cigarettes per day;
• Heavy – 21 or more cigarettes per day.

There has been little overall change across categories over the past two years to June 2010. However, the proportion of occasional smokers has increased by almost 2% since June 2008 and this has been accompanied by a slight decrease in the proportion of heavy smokers.

DESCRIPTION OF SMOKERS

The following charts focus on smokers only. These percentages reflect the frequency of the various demographic groups within the population as well as the prevalence of smoking within the demographic groups. Chart 3.1 shows the breakdown of smokers by gender at June 2010. Just over half (52.5%) of the smoking population are male.

Chart 3.2 shows the distribution of smokers across age groups. Almost 50% of smokers are aged between 25 and 44 years (25-34 years, 28.8% and 35-44 years, 20.1%). Those aged 55+ years account for only 18% of the smokers. Almost 3% of the smokers were less than 18 years of age.

Chart 3.3 shows the distribution of smokers by social class. The DE class (semi-skilled, unskilled, or unemployed) alone accounts for almost one third of the smoking population (32.6%). The C2 (27.8%) and C1 (25.5%) categories together account for over half of the smoking population. The relatively small proportion of smokers who are farmers (5.3%) or who are in category AB (8.7%) reflects both the smaller size of these demographics and their lower smoking rates.

The percentages of smokers by region are shown in Chart 3.4. Munster, Dublin and the rest of Leinster account for similar proportions of smokers. The Connaught/Ulster region contains only 17.0% of smokers, reflecting the smaller population of this region.

Chart 3.5 presents the smoking population by Health Service Executive (HSE) administrative area The HSE Dublin North East Region contains the lowest percentage (18.1%) of the country’s smokers, while the HSE South area contains the most, with nearly a third of all smokers residing in this area.

Chart 3.6 depicts the number of cigarettes smoked daily by all reported smokers. Nearly half of all smokers (46.1%) indicated that they were regular smokers (11-20 cigarettes per day), while 6.7% reported being heavy smokers (21+ cigarettes per day).

MARKET DATA

The following charts are based on data relating to the Irish cigarette market.

Distributor Market Share

The Irish market is dominated by three main distributors. The JTI group has the largest market share with over 50.8% of the sales at June 2010 (Chart 4).

Most popular brands of cigarette smoked

The JTI Group distributes three of the top five most popular brands smoked: Benson and Hedges, Silk Cut Purple and Silk Cut Blue (Chart 4.1). These three brands have featured in the top five since August 2003. Benson & Hedges is the most popular brand, being smoked by 16.3% of smokers at June 2010. Two thirds of smokers smoke these five brands.

Most popular brands by gender and age group

The gender distribution of smokers of the five most popular brands is shown in Chart 4.2. Silk Cut cigarettes (Blue and Purple) are favoured by women smokers. Two thirds of those who smoke Silk Cut are women. Almost 60% of smokers who smoke Marlboro Gold, John Player Blue and Benson & Hedges are men.

Chart 4.3 highlights consumer patterns according to age group. Marlboro Gold, John Player Blue and Benson & Hedges are favoured by younger smokers: over 60% of smokers of these three brands are under 35 years of age. Of smokers who smoke Marlboro Gold, almost half (45.4%) are in the 25-34 age group; almost a quarter of John Player Blue smokers are aged 18-24. Silk Cut brands appear to be more popular among older age groups: around 60% of smokers of these brands are aged 35 or over.

GLOSSARY

Cigarette Smoking Prevalence: Refers to self reported use of cigarettes in the population (based on the proportion of survey respondents who answer yes to the question: “Do you smoke one or more cigarettes each week, whether packaged or roll your own?”)

Weighted Data: Quota controls on the sample are set to ensure each demographic group is interviewed in proportion to its representation in the overall population. When quotas are underachieved or overachieved, weightings are applied to align the sample's final demographic profile with that of the overall population.

12 month moving average trend: The 12 month moving average is used for showing trends over time in order to provide more stable rates and to give a clearer representation of the underlying trend. It is calculated for each month by getting the average of the data value for that month together with the previous 11 months’ data values, and so on. This process smoothes out the trend line by removing ‘noise’ (large month to month fluctuations).

Social Class Categorisation

A Professional people, very senior managers in business and commerce, or top-level civil servants

B Middle management executives in large organizations; Principal Officers in local government and civil service; top management or owners of small business concerns, education and service establishments

C1 Junior management, owners of small establishments and all others in non- manual positions

C2 All skilled manual workers and those manual workers with responsibility for other people

D All semi skilled and unskilled manual workers

E All those entirely dependent on the state long-term; those unemployed for period exceeding 6 months

F Farmers or farm managers

(Source: AIMRO Standard Guide for Social Class)